Economics, Politics, and Declining College Enrollment

Between 2010 and 2023, US post-secondary enrollments declined 10%--an unprecedented loss in the post-WWII era. In the two-year college sector, enrollments fell by more than one-third. Most of the enrollment contraction is explained by declining college attendance rates, not declining numbers of young people. Traditionally, economists have connected enrollment rates to unemployment; when the economy booms, prospective students opt for the workplace. Does this old story explain the recent contraction? Some analysts point to two new economic trends that diminish the value of attending college: rising long term unemployment among the college-educated and wage convergence. In addition, some argue that declining college-going is downstream of political realignments. Using college attendance data across states and time, Nathan will explore these alternative explanations to uncover the causes of the recent decline in college enrollment.